GBPackers
11-0
38
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
9 mph
35
NYGGiants
6-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
8
7
10
32
Giants
10
7
7
11
35
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
449
Total Plays
77
62
Yards / Play
5.8
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
360
347
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.13
Rushing Yards
89
102
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
21
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.49
-11.23
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.19
-2.37
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
55
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-7.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,716
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
26
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U