GBPackers
8-3
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
32°F
10 mph
13
NYGGiants
2-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
32°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
3
0
14
31
Giants
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
335
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.11
Rushing Yards
79
95
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.72
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-7.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+74.2
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.9
Time Adj
+8.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
-2.1
Final Difference
-140.6
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
9
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U