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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ giants week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
6-6
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
14 mph
24
NYGGiants
4-8
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
3
9
22
Giants
0
7
14
3
24

Spread

NYG logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
326
367
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
203
--
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.25
Rushing Yards
123
209
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-2.72
-0.56
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.44
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-76.0
Home QB Adjustment
-67.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
-127.3
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
10/09
-8.6
6
10/22
1.7
60
10/29
-3.6
26
11/05
-0.6
45
11/12
-0.3
46
11/19
2.8
69
11/23
8.3
94
12/03
6.2
88
T. DeVito headshot

T. DeVito

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
Value
Ptile
11/12
-6.0
14
11/19
-4.0
24
11/26
-4.7
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Packers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
14
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Giants logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
29
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
10/09
-4
L
L
U
10/22
-2
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
17
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
8
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-3
L
P
U
11/05
-24
L
L
U
11/12
-32
L
L
O
11/19
12
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U