GBPackers
6-6
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
14 mph
24
NYGGiants
4-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
3
9
22
Giants
0
7
14
3
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
367
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
203
--
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.25
Rushing Yards
123
209
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-2.72
-0.56
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.44
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-75.0
Home QB Adjustment
-66.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
-127.4
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
T. DeVito
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-66.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
29
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U