GBPackers
1-1
7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
019
DETLions
1-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
0
0
7
Lions
1
3
0
7
11
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
223
353
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.07
Passing Yards
147
238
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.01
Rushing Yards
76
115
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.36
-9.61
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-4.02
-6.32
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-4.60
-6.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
12
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
2-6-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U