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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ lions week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
19
DETLions
1-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
0
0
7
Lions
1
3
0
7
11

Spread

DET logo
-1

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
223
353
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.07
Passing Yards
147
238
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.01
Rushing Yards
76
115
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.36
-9.61
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-4.02
-6.32
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-4.60
-6.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.4
28
10/06
2.9
70
10/13
-0.4
47
10/20
6.9
90
10/27
6.6
88
11/04
-6.0
14
12/29
0.2
51
01/05
-2.1
38
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/10
0.8
55
11/17
0.4
52
11/24
-4.4
23
11/28
3.6
74
12/08
-5.3
18
12/16
-4.9
19
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1

EPA

EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
12
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
15
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-5-1
SU
2-6-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-14
L
L
U
11/24
0
T
L
O
11/28
-30
L
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/15
1
W
W
O
12/22
-7
L
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
O
01/05
-3
L
P
U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
2
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
30
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
P
12/16
-2
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U