GBPackers
3-5
9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
015
DETLions
1-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
6
3
9
Lions
0
8
0
7
15
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
256
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
5.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.11
Passing Yards
283
--
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.06
Rushing Yards
106
119
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-18.03
-6.78
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.70
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
81
62
Penalty EPA
-11.79
-8.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-92
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+42.2
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.3
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
16
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U