GBPackers
6-3
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
4-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
1
10
18
Lions
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
362
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.20
Passing Yards
219
252
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
17/39(44%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.46
Rushing Yards
95
110
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-18.13
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-14
Sack EPA
-3.97
-8.53
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
80
50
Penalty EPA
-8.84
-12.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+18.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
4
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
26
29
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U