GBPackers
10-0
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
015
DETLions
7-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
17
3
27
Lions
0
0
0
15
15
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
411
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
6.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.12
Passing Yards
296
275
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.14
Rushing Yards
53
136
Rush Attempts
18
21
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.78
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-3
Sack EPA
-3.40
-1.48
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
54
82
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-10.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,708
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
+37.3
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U