GBPackers
4-6
29
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
022
DETLions
8-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
3
6
0
23
Lions
6
0
8
8
22
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
468
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
6.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.10
Rushing Yards
109
142
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-15.57
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-11.55
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
51
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
5
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
19
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U