GBPackers
5-5
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
040
DETLions
6-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
4
0
0
4
Lions
0
17
7
14
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
126
561
Total Plays
42
79
Yards / Play
3.0
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.12
Passing Yards
102
320
Comp/Att
10/20(50%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.11
Rushing Yards
24
241
Rush Attempts
15
43
Yards / Rush
1.6
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.83
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
30
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-14.05
-20.74
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-37
-10
Sack EPA
-12.29
-8.07
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-9.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+135.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-133.8
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
136.3
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-133.8
Value
Ptile
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U