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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ lions week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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GB logo
GBPackers
13-3
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
37
DETLions
2-13
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
6
3
14
30
Lions
7
10
7
13
37

Spread

DET logo
+4

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
380
404
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.15
Passing Yards
256
305
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.40
Rushing Yards
124
99
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.02
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-6.47
-2.29
Penalties
--
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-4.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model74.3%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+23.9%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-265
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-30.7
Final Difference
-184.6
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Value
Ptile
10/17
2.7
73
10/24
4.5
82
10/28
-0.1
52
11/14
-1.6
41
11/21
10.6
97
11/28
6.7
90
12/12
7.8
93
12/19
4.5
82
12/25
5.2
84
01/02
7.3
92
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36
12/19
4.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
31
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
14
W
W
U
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
W
U
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
-3
L
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/12
15
W
W
O
12/19
1
W
L
O
12/25
2
W
L
U
01/02
27
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

2-7-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
01/02
-22
L
L
O