GBPackers
13-3
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
037
DETLions
2-13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
6
3
14
30
Lions
7
10
7
13
37
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
404
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.15
Passing Yards
256
305
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.40
Rushing Yards
124
99
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.02
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-6.47
-2.29
Penalties
--
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model74.5%
Spread Pick
Packers-4.0
Expected Value
+23.9%
Cover Probability
63.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-261
Home nfelo
1,356
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-28.9
Final Difference
-185.8
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
31
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
2-7-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U