GBPackers
1-0
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
11 mph
23
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
16
7
30
Panthers
10
3
0
10
23
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
475
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
8.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.03
Passing Yards
295
404
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.03
Rushing Yards
124
71
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-12.30
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-1.74
-7.11
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
57
50
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
Panthers+10.5
Expected Value
+13.5%
Cover Probability
59.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-193
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-225.8
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
10
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-3-2
O/U