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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ panthers week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-0
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
11 mph
23
CARPanthers
0-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
64°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
16
7
30
Panthers
10
3
0
10
23

Spread

CAR logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
419
475
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
8.1
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.03
Passing Yards
295
404
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.03
Rushing Yards
124
71
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-12.30
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-1.74
-7.11
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
57
50
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-6.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market81.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.5%
Cover Probability
59.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-223.1
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
11/28
10.5
98
12/05
7.2
91
12/12
-7.0
10
12/26
13.0
99
01/02
0.3
51
01/09
2.7
67
01/15
14.5
100
01/23
0.2
50
02/06
5.6
85
09/08
7.8
93
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
6.5
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Packers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
16
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Panthers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
10
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
7
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
18
W
W
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
12/19
-4
L
W
O
12/26
28
W
W
O
01/02
7
W
L
U
01/09
5
W
W
U
01/15
27
W
W
O
01/23
7
W
W
U
02/06
6
W
W
O
09/08
8
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-31
L
L
U
11/14
-15
L
L
O
11/21
-24
L
L
O
11/28
-1
L
W
O
12/05
-17
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
P
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/23
-24
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
P
09/11
-7
L
L
O