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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ patriots week 9, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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GB logo
GBPackers
3-3
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
2 mph
31
NEPatriots
6-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
7
0
17
Patriots
7
10
0
14
31

Spread

NE logo
-5

Total

UNDER
56

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
367
433
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.27
Passing Yards
250
310
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
123
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.60
-4.16
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
63
--
Penalty EPA
-10.76
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Value
Ptile
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85
09/16
1.9
61
09/23
1.6
58
09/30
-0.3
44
10/07
6.9
89
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
01/21
3.3
77
02/04
11.3
99
09/09
2.4
66
09/16
3.4
72
09/23
-5.8
14
09/30
3.0
70
10/04
8.8
94
10/14
5.1
81
10/21
5.1
81
10/29
2.1
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Packers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense
Patriots logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23

EPA

EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
6
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
10
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-7
L
L
O
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O
09/16
0
T
W
O
09/23
-14
L
L
O
09/30
22
W
W
U
10/07
-8
L
L
O
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/21
4
W
L
U
02/04
-8
L
L
O
09/09
7
W
W
U
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
U
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/14
3
W
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
O
10/29
19
W
W
U