GBPackers
3-3
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
2 mph
31
NEPatriots
6-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
7
0
17
Patriots
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
433
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.27
Passing Yards
250
310
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
123
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.60
-4.16
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
63
--
Penalty EPA
-10.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
2
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U