GBPackers
8-5
27
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph
31
NEPatriots
11-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
14
7
3
27
Patriots
7
7
1
10
25
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
249
Total Plays
80
43
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.17
Passing Yards
226
136
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.06
Rushing Yards
143
113
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
3.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.29
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-25
-27
Sack EPA
-7.27
-4.60
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
52
Penalty EPA
-1.06
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+356
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+215.4
Home QB Adjustment
+26.5
Away QB Adjustment
-189.0
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-189.0
No recent game data available
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
3
15
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U