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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ raiders week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
2-2
13
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
17
OAKRaiders
1-3
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
10
0
13
Raiders
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

OAK logo
-1

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
285
279
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.17
Passing Yards
175
183
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.06
Rushing Yards
110
96
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.58
-5.31
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-7
-25
Sack EPA
-2.16
-8.29
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
18
28
Penalty EPA
-2.13
-7.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+58.9
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
24.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71
12/04
-7.0
9
09/10
2.3
65
09/17
-1.9
36
09/24
-2.7
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Packers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
14
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
5
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Raiders Offense vs Packers Defense
Raiders logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
26
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
24
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
9
W
W
O
12/19
12
W
W
U
12/25
6
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/08
-1
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/07
-18
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
W
U
09/17
-28
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U