GBPackers
2-2
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
019
LARRams
1-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
14
0
24
Rams
0
7
0
6
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
370
Total Plays
58
77
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
202
236
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.20
Rushing Yards
126
134
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.92
-9.88
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-24
Sack EPA
-4.53
-5.54
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-7.01
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.7%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+70.7
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-11.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U