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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ saints week 3, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
2-0
37
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
30
NOSaints
1-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
10
14
10
37
Saints
7
10
10
3
30

Spread

GB logo
+3

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
369
397
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.07
Passing Yards
271
275
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.30
Rushing Yards
98
122
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.72
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-2.52
-2.85
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-8.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
11/24
-4.3
24
12/01
7.0
90
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-0.5
49
12/23
-4.5
23
12/29
-3.2
30
01/12
0.7
57
01/19
2.1
67
09/13
12.9
98
09/20
1.1
52
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
3.9
78
11/24
5.9
86
11/28
-2.1
37
12/08
16.0
100
12/16
12.1
99
12/22
3.2
73
12/29
4.1
79
01/05
0.0
52
09/13
-0.8
40
09/21
1.8
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Packers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
5
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Saints logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
26
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
5
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-29
L
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/08
5
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/23
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
U
01/12
5
W
W
O
01/19
-17
L
L
O
09/13
9
W
W
O
09/20
21
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
32
W
W
O
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/21
-10
L
L
O