GBPackers
2-0
37
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
1-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
10
14
10
37
Saints
7
10
10
3
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
397
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.07
Passing Yards
271
275
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.30
Rushing Yards
98
122
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.72
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-2.52
-2.85
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
26
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U