GBPackers
5-2
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
044
NOSaints
2-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
6
0
7
23
Saints
10
6
14
14
44
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
495
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
7.8
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.37
Passing Yards
402
302
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.47
Rushing Yards
89
193
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
10
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.40
-4.61
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-9.78
-2.47
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
84
35
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-3.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
+15.8
Final Difference
15.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
23
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U