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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ saints week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-2
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
44
NOSaints
2-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
6
0
7
23
Saints
10
6
14
14
44

Spread

NO logo
-2

Total

OVER
55

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
491
495
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
7.8
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.37
Passing Yards
402
302
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.47
Rushing Yards
89
193
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
10
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.40
-4.61
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-9.78
-2.47
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
84
35
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-3.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model52.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
+14.6
Final Difference
14.6
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Value
Ptile
11/04
-6.0
14
12/29
0.2
51
01/05
-2.1
38
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
09/21
-1.9
36
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
10/12
3.9
76
10/19
6.7
88
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Packers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29

EPA

EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
12
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
23
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Saints logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26

EPA

EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
7
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
7
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-7
L
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
O
01/05
-3
L
P
U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
21
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O