nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ seahawks week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

GB logo
GBPackers
-
16
TBD
Lumen Field
71°F
11 mph
36
SEASeahawks
-
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
71°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
0
6
16
Seahawks
3
14
3
14
34

Spread

SEA logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
255
398
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.28
Passing Yards
175
191
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.20
Rushing Yards
80
207
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.26
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-5.84
-0.38
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
69
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-6.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
149.4
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.6
74
09/15
12.2
98
09/22
-3.4
28
10/06
2.9
70
10/13
-0.4
47
10/20
6.9
90
10/27
6.6
88
11/04
-6.0
14
12/29
0.2
51
01/05
-2.1
38
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
11/10
5.8
85
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10
12/29
-4.0
24
01/11
-6.0
14
01/19
-2.4
36
02/02
5.7
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
10
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
1
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

3-6-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/10
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-14
L
L
U
11/24
0
T
L
O
11/28
-30
L
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/15
1
W
W
O
12/22
-7
L
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
O
01/05
-3
L
P
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
23
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
U
01/11
8
W
L
U
01/19
6
W
W
P
02/02
35
W
W
O