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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ seahawks week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
12
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
3 mph
14
SEASeahawks
1-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
6
6
12
Seahawks
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
268
238
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
3.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
184
111
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.09
Rushing Yards
84
127
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
47%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-39
-19
Sack EPA
-9.54
-2.33
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
127
118
Penalty EPA
-10.32
-11.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
11/14
6.5
88
11/20
5.4
83
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99
01/15
1.8
65
09/09
4.4
77
09/13
-4.4
23
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
20
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
5
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
15
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O
01/15
-17
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/01
17
W
W
O
12/12
17
W
W
O
12/18
24
W
W
O
12/24
-2
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
L
O
09/09
-4
L
L
U
09/16
20
W
W
U