GBPackers
1-1
12
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
3 mph
14
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
6
6
12
Seahawks
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
238
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
3.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
184
111
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.09
Rushing Yards
84
127
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
47%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-39
-19
Sack EPA
-9.54
-2.33
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
127
118
Penalty EPA
-10.32
-11.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U