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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ seahawks week 15, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
9-4
30
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
3 mph
13
SEASeahawks
8-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
6
3
7
30
Seahawks
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

GB logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
369
208
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.0
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
128
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.63
Rushing Yards
140
80
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-8.45
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-45
Sack EPA
--
-11.46
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
27
108
Penalty EPA
-3.69
-8.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
4.0
75
11/24
-0.3
48
11/28
6.6
88
12/05
0.6
52
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/30
4.3
76
10/06
2.4
65
10/10
-1.4
38
10/20
1.1
57
10/27
-0.1
48
11/03
-5.0
16
11/17
1.1
56
11/24
-4.5
19
12/01
-0.6
45
12/08
3.7
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7

EPA

EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
18
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
14
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U
11/24
28
W
W
O
11/28
13
W
W
U
12/05
-3
L
P
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-13
L
L
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/10
-12
L
L
O
10/20
20
W
W
U
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
W
U
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/01
5
W
W
O
12/08
12
W
W
O