GBPackers
9-4
30
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
3 mph
13
SEASeahawks
8-5
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
6
3
7
30
Seahawks
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
208
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.0
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
128
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.63
Rushing Yards
140
80
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-8.45
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-45
Sack EPA
--
-11.46
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
27
108
Penalty EPA
-3.69
-8.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U