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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ texans week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
4-1
35
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
1-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
7
7
35
Texans
0
0
7
13
20

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
379
365
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.12
Rushing Yards
96
79
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.70
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-6.64
-8.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
12/15
-0.5
49
12/23
-4.5
23
12/29
-3.2
30
01/12
0.7
57
01/19
2.1
67
09/13
12.9
98
09/20
1.1
52
09/27
6.1
84
10/05
9.0
95
10/18
-12.8
1
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Value
Ptile
12/15
0.7
57
12/21
-7.9
9
01/04
2.9
72
01/12
6.7
89
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Packers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
5
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Texans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10

EPA

EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
23
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/23
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
U
01/12
5
W
W
O
01/19
-17
L
L
O
09/13
9
W
W
O
09/20
21
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/05
14
W
W
U
10/18
-28
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
3
W
P
U
12/29
-21
L
L
O
01/04
3
W
W
U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O