GBPackers
4-1
35
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
1-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
7
7
35
Texans
0
0
7
13
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
365
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.12
Rushing Yards
96
79
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.70
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-6.64
-8.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U