GBPackers
4-2
44
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
031
MINVikings
1-5
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
11
7
13
38
Vikings
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
243
Total Plays
73
43
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.28
Passing Yards
282
132
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.78
-0.05
Rushing Yards
182
111
Rush Attempts
42
19
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
72%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
13
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-3
-13
Sack EPA
-1.72
-3.06
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
120
46
Penalty EPA
-12.14
-7.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-179
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+22.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U