GBPackers
7-3
24
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
49°F
021
MINVikings
4-6
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
49°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
3
7
24
Vikings
0
10
3
8
21
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
310
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.12
Passing Yards
207
196
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.09
Rushing Yards
155
112
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.55
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
-14
Sack EPA
-1.06
-4.05
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
75
77
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-11.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-203
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,666
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+36.7
Market Regression
+44.1
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.7
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U