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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
7-3
24
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
49°F
0
21
MINVikings
4-6
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
49°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
3
7
24
Vikings
0
10
3
8
21

Spread

MIN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
362
310
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.12
Passing Yards
207
196
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.09
Rushing Yards
155
112
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.55
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
-14
Sack EPA
-1.06
-4.05
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
75
77
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-11.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-207
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+36.7
Market Regression
+44.9
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.7
Value
Ptile
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
09/21
-1.9
36
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
10/12
3.9
76
10/19
6.7
88
10/26
5.2
83
11/09
11.3
98
11/16
9.0
94
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24

EPA

EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26

EPA

EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
13
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
21
W
W
O
10/26
-21
L
L
O
11/09
41
W
W
O
11/16
33
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U