GBPackers
4-5
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
024
MINVikings
5-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
3
17
Vikings
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
416
Total Plays
51
69
Yards / Play
5.0
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.03
Passing Yards
172
325
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.32
Rushing Yards
82
91
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.27
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-17
Sack EPA
-6.44
-4.41
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
20
55
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-3.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
2
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
25
30
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U