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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
11-3
23
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
10
MINVikings
10-4
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
6
8
6
23
Vikings
3
7
0
0
10

Spread

GB logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
385
139
Total Plays
76
53
Yards / Play
5.1
2.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.66
Passing Yards
201
82
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
2.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.77
Rushing Yards
184
57
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
22
7
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.51
-5.83
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-40
Sack EPA
-4.48
-8.49
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
-21.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.4
35
10/14
1.4
64
10/20
15.6
99
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-2.7
34
11/10
-1.8
40
11/24
-4.3
24
12/01
7.0
90
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-0.5
49
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
10/06
3.7
77
10/13
6.9
90
10/20
8.9
95
10/24
0.9
59
11/03
1.1
61
11/10
3.5
75
11/17
5.8
85
12/02
0.7
58
12/08
1.4
64
12/15
1.3
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
10
W
W
O
10/14
1
W
L
U
10/20
18
W
W
O
10/27
7
W
W
O
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/24
-29
L
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/08
5
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
18
W
W
U
10/13
18
W
W
O
10/20
12
W
W
O
10/24
10
W
L
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
4
W
W
O
11/17
4
W
L
O
12/02
-7
L
L
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
29
W
W
O