GBPackers
11-3
23
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
010
MINVikings
10-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
6
8
6
23
Vikings
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
139
Total Plays
76
53
Yards / Play
5.1
2.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.66
Passing Yards
201
82
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
2.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.77
Rushing Yards
184
57
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
7
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.51
-5.83
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-40
Sack EPA
-4.48
-8.49
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U