GBPackers
11-4
34
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
037
MINVikings
9-6
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
14
10
34
Vikings
10
10
7
10
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
444
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.26
Passing Yards
333
227
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.44
Rushing Yards
72
217
Rush Attempts
16
37
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-7
Sack EPA
-9.77
-1.22
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
43
98
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-10.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,645
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U