GBPackers
11-4
25
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
027
MINVikings
13-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
7
15
25
Vikings
0
13
14
0
27
Spread
+0.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
441
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.04
Passing Yards
169
372
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.28
Rushing Yards
104
69
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.17
-6.18
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-3.52
-0.90
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
51
47
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-0.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market51.1%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+35.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-29.9
Final Difference
-7.6
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U