CARPanthers
4-2
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
19 mph
51
SF49ers
6-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
8
0
11
49ers
14
13
14
10
51
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
388
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
3.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.15
Passing Yards
100
156
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.84
+0.18
Rushing Yards
132
232
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
6.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
15%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.50
-5.42
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-58
-19
Sack EPA
-12.83
-5.93
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-10.61
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+20.8
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.3
Net QB Adjustment
+87.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-91.3
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-91.3
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
15
27
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U