CARPanthers
1-2
29
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
8 mph
34
CHIBears
1-2
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
17
0
9
29
Bears
4
8
0
10
22
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
543
317
Total Plays
73
49
Yards / Play
7.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
93
Comp/Att
27/47(57%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.42
Rushing Yards
169
224
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
6.5
7.2
EPA / Rush
+0.32
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.33
-3.86
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.47
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
45
Penalty EPA
-5.81
+2.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.5
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
Value
Ptile
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
1
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
5
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U