CARPanthers
1-5
22
TBD
Soldier Field
49°F
18 mph
23
CHIBears
5-1
TBD
Soldier Field
49°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
10
6
3
22
Bears
7
0
0
10
17
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
210
Total Plays
77
54
Yards / Play
5.4
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
297
131
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.28
Rushing Yards
119
79
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
8
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.30
-8.32
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-55
Sack EPA
-2.64
-10.35
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
21
40
Penalty EPA
-2.16
-5.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Bears-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-55.4
Final Difference
180.1
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
18
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U