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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bills week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
0-1
23
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
10 mph
24
BUFBills
0-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
7
9
23
Bills
0
3
11
10
24

Spread

BUF logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
308
438
Total Plays
76
74
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
183
289
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
125
149
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.99
-10.25
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-46
-9
Sack EPA
-8.80
-6.02
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-9.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-10.9
Final Difference
-27.0
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
11/04
3.8
73
11/11
-7.3
9
11/18
0.2
51
11/26
9.6
96
12/02
7.4
91
12/09
15.3
100
12/16
0.6
54
12/23
1.2
58
12/30
-3.2
28
09/08
2.2
65
E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.4
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Panthers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bills logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3

EPA

EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
9
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
15
8
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
-22
L
L
O
11/18
-6
L
L
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
24
W
W
U
12/23
11
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
O
09/08
-5
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-12
L
L
U
11/11
-6
L
W
O
11/15
5
W
W
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
16
W
W
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U