CARPanthers
0-1
23
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
10 mph
24
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
7
9
23
Bills
0
3
11
10
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
438
Total Plays
76
74
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
183
289
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
125
149
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.99
-10.25
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-46
-9
Sack EPA
-8.80
-6.02
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-9.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.5
Expected Value
+13.1%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-29.0
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
15
8
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U