CARPanthers
-
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph
21
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
0
3
20
Broncos
0
7
0
14
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
307
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
176
159
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.11
Rushing Yards
157
148
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.40
-13.03
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-3.74
-2.99
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
85
--
Penalty EPA
-6.49
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-58.0
Home QB Adjustment
-45.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-38.4
Final Difference
-23.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-45.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U