nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ broncos week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph
21
DENBroncos
-
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
0
3
20
Broncos
0
7
0
14
21

Spread

DEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
333
307
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
176
159
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.11
Rushing Yards
157
148
Rush Attempts
32
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.40
-13.03
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-3.74
-2.99
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
85
--
Penalty EPA
-6.49
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+80.0
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
-58.0
Home QB Adjustment
-45.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-37.2
Final Difference
-21.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
5.8
86
11/26
1.2
59
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
12/20
11.4
99
12/27
-0.8
46
01/03
6.3
88
01/17
-0.5
48
01/24
10.6
97
02/07
-7.0
7
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-45.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Panthers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
15
3
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Broncos logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7

EPA

EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
30
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
27
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/26
19
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
28
W
W
O
01/17
7
W
W
O
01/24
34
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
2
W
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U