CARPanthers
1-6
14
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
4 mph
28
DENBroncos
4-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
0
7
14
Broncos
0
21
7
0
28
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
400
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
215
298
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.10
Rushing Yards
69
102
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-9.78
-8.80
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-2.91
-4.91
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
49
43
Penalty EPA
-7.10
-9.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+311
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,271
Home Field
+59.7
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-26.0
Market Regression
+30.3
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.0
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
29
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
15
25
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U