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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ broncos week 21, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
17-1
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
76°F
16 mph
24
DENBroncos
14-4
DEN logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
76°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
Broncos
4
3
3
8
18

Spread

DEN logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
315
196
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
4.2
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.22
Passing Yards
197
106
Comp/Att
18/41(44%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.52
Rushing Yards
118
90
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
20%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-18.55
-8.40
Sacks
7
5
Sack Yards
-68
-37
Sack EPA
-15.14
-10.51
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
102
51
Penalty EPA
-12.59
-6.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.2
Net QB Adjustment
-67.8
Home QB Adjustment
-30.7
Away QB Adjustment
+37.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-106.5
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Value
Ptile
11/15
1.2
59
11/22
5.8
86
11/26
1.2
59
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
12/20
11.4
99
12/27
-0.8
46
01/03
6.3
88
01/17
-0.5
48
01/24
10.6
97
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-30.7
Value
Ptile
09/17
0.5
54
09/27
4.8
81
10/04
-5.1
15
10/11
-5.2
14
10/18
-4.2
20
11/01
3.7
77
11/08
-0.4
48
11/15
-17.5
0
01/17
-2.0
35
01/24
-2.3
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Panthers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1

EPA

EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
3
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
8
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Broncos logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
27
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
28
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
17
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/26
19
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
28
W
W
O
01/17
7
W
W
O
01/24
34
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
2
W
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/28
3
W
L
U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U