CARPanthers
17-1
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
76°F
16 mph
24
DENBroncos
14-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
76°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
Broncos
4
3
3
8
18
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
196
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
4.2
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.22
Passing Yards
197
106
Comp/Att
18/41(44%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.52
Rushing Yards
118
90
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
20%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-18.55
-8.40
Sacks
7
5
Sack Yards
-68
-37
Sack EPA
-15.14
-10.51
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
102
51
Penalty EPA
-12.59
-6.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+21.0
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
-67.8
Home QB Adjustment
-30.7
Away QB Adjustment
+37.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-30.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
3
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
8
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U