CARPanthers
3-2
37
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
61°F
14 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
2-3
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
61°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
7
10
10
37
Buccaneers
0
7
3
16
26
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
411
Total Plays
63
77
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
209
367
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
30/55(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.25
Rushing Yards
59
44
Rush Attempts
29
15
Yards / Rush
2.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+5.33
-19.90
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-18
-35
Sack EPA
-2.74
-12.77
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
30
70
Penalty EPA
-2.48
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
-24.3
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-24.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+96.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
-100.6
Market Regression
-23.0
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-100.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U