CARPanthers
4-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
63°F
13 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
2-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
63°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
3
0
7
17
Buccaneers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
279
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.32
Passing Yards
--
194
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.44
Rushing Yards
100
85
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.66
-10.48
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-8.31
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
8.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U