CARPanthers
6-5
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
4-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
10
0
17
Buccaneers
10
7
7
0
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
315
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
6.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.01
Passing Yards
276
220
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.31
Rushing Yards
168
95
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
8.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-18.69
-6.23
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-24
-29
Sack EPA
-5.63
-5.85
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
104
69
Penalty EPA
-9.17
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U