CARPanthers
6-9
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
2 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
7-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
10
24
Buccaneers
0
10
0
20
30
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
480
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
6.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
326
413
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
34/47(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.26
Rushing Yards
74
67
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.09
-2.48
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-21
Sack EPA
-6.67
-5.89
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
58
51
Penalty EPA
-4.90
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+22.9
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U