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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ buccaneers week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-11
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
4 mph
41
TBBuccaneers
12-4
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
7
17
Buccaneers
0
10
7
24
41

Spread

TB logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
317
409
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
207
324
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.40
Rushing Yards
110
85
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-2
Sack EPA
-2.57
-1.00
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model85.6%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+361
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-27.0
Market Regression
+37.3
Final Difference
309.9
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-27.0
Value
Ptile
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4
10/17
-6.1
14
10/24
-10.6
3
10/31
-2.4
35
11/07
-9.5
5
01/02
-10.7
3
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
10/24
4.2
80
10/31
5.5
85
11/14
-1.7
41
11/22
2.8
74
11/28
-1.5
42
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
12/26
1.9
67
01/02
6.0
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
17
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
11
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-22
L
L
U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
35
W
W
U
10/31
-9
L
L
O
11/14
-10
L
L
U
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
12/26
26
W
W
U
01/02
4
W
L
O