CARPanthers
5-11
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
4 mph
41
TBBuccaneers
12-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
7
17
Buccaneers
0
10
7
24
41
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
409
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.22
Passing Yards
207
324
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.40
Rushing Yards
110
85
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-2
Sack EPA
-2.57
-1.00
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model85.6%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-10.5
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+358
Home nfelo
1,676
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-27.0
Market Regression
+33.7
Final Difference
309.2
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-27.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U