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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ cardinals week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
21
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
28
ARICardinals
-
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
7
0
21
Cardinals
7
0
7
8
22

Spread

CAR logo
ARI logo
7
P

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
477
394
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
7.0
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
403
295
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.42
Rushing Yards
74
99
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-5.48
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-14
Sack EPA
-7.42
-2.90
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
74
61
Penalty EPA
-7.16
-7.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,384
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
127.3
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
No recent game data available
K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
10.2
97
09/12
-7.7
8
10/10
1.1
55
10/17
7.9
93
10/24
-2.2
34
01/02
-12.6
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
16
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
11
8
EPA / Rush
1
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
2
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
9
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
18
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
14
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/07
-31
L
L
U
11/14
-15
L
L
O
11/21
-24
L
L
O
11/28
-1
L
W
O
12/05
-17
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
P
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/23
-24
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
P
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
11/21
-18
L
L
U
11/29
-21
L
L
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
30
W
W
O
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/25
1
W
W
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O