CARPanthers
0-1
22
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
ARICardinals
1-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
0
6
13
22
Cardinals
4
10
7
0
21
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
293
Total Plays
79
48
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
303
211
Comp/Att
35/55(64%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.25
Rushing Yards
49
82
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.92
-4.89
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-8.95
-2.27
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
83
96
Penalty EPA
-9.08
-12.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
Cardinals-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
191.2
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U