CARPanthers
3-5
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
71°F
19 mph
33
KCChiefs
7-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
71°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
0
14
31
Chiefs
3
10
7
13
33
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
397
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.32
Passing Yards
331
361
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.30
Rushing Yards
104
36
Rush Attempts
24
11
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
24
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
44%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.36
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.54
-2.95
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
82
75
Penalty EPA
-10.57
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model83.6%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-10.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,720
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
283.3
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
27
6
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Chiefs Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U