CARPanthers
2-8
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
019
INDColts
0-10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
7
10
27
Colts
0
10
3
6
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
323
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.01
Passing Yards
176
218
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.17
Rushing Yards
201
105
Rush Attempts
35
23
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.84
-9.66
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-4.43
-3.34
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
92
15
Penalty EPA
-8.03
-1.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model58.9%
Spread Pick
Colts+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-88.3
Home QB Adjustment
-58.0
Away QB Adjustment
+30.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-62.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-58.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
28
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
1
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
21
31
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Colts Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
28
32
EPA / Rush
30
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U