CARPanthers
3-1
17
TBD
FedExField
52°F
023
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
52°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
6
3
8
17
Commanders
14
3
0
6
23
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
288
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
271
156
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
81
132
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.88
+5.66
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.43
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
43
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-1.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
-2.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U