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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ commanders week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-1
17
TBD
FedExField
52°F
0
23
WASCommanders
2-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
52°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
6
3
8
17
Commanders
14
3
0
6
23

Spread

WAS logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
352
288
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
271
156
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
81
132
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.88
+5.66
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.43
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
55
43
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-1.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
-1.8
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Value
Ptile
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92
12/24
-1.7
40
12/31
-8.6
6
01/07
4.3
82
09/09
0.3
49
09/16
8.4
93
09/23
5.4
82
10/07
-0.9
41
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
11/26
-0.8
46
12/03
12.8
99
12/10
-5.0
19
12/16
6.5
89
12/24
3.3
77
01/06
2.5
70
09/09
2.0
62
09/16
1.5
57
09/23
0.3
48
10/08
-2.8
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
4
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
12
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
24
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
12/31
-12
L
L
U
01/07
-5
L
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
L
O
09/23
10
W
W
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
10
W
W
U
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/17
5
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
09/09
18
W
W
U
09/16
-12
L
L
U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O