CARPanthers
1-5
7
TBD
FedExField
76°F
2 mph
40
WASCommanders
4-2
TBD
FedExField
76°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
0
7
7
Commanders
4
17
10
3
34
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
180
421
Total Plays
43
63
Yards / Play
4.2
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.45
+0.29
Passing Yards
85
207
Comp/Att
13/18(72%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
-1.02
+0.42
Rushing Yards
95
214
Rush Attempts
23
37
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.72
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-4
Sack EPA
-2.09
-1.14
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
59
55
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-1.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,301
Home Field
+45.0
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+35.5
Away QB Adjustment
+53.6
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+53.6
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U