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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ commanders week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
1-6
21
TBD
FedExField
50°F
3 mph
13
WASCommanders
3-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
50°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Commanders
3
0
3
7
13

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
330
337
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
6.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
186
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.02
Rushing Yards
129
151
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
45%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-7.69
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
60
97
Penalty EPA
-8.77
-11.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.9
Home QB Adjustment
+36.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
4.3
78
12/24
9.0
96
01/01
-2.5
33
09/09
-2.3
34
09/16
7.6
91
09/20
-6.3
12
09/30
8.4
93
10/07
-5.1
18
10/21
1.7
61
10/28
-1.0
42
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
Value
Ptile
09/09
7.0
90
09/16
9.3
95
09/23
2.9
68
09/30
7.7
92
10/07
-4.2
23
10/14
12.5
99
10/21
6.9
89
10/28
-2.1
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9

EPA

EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
5
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
15
W
W
U
12/24
32
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-6
L
L
U
09/16
8
W
W
O
09/20
-29
L
L
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/21
-5
L
L
U
10/28
-1
L
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
-24
L
L
P
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
-3
L
L
O
09/23
-7
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
U
10/14
12
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
U