CARPanthers
1-6
21
TBD
FedExField
50°F
3 mph
13
WASCommanders
3-5
TBD
FedExField
50°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Commanders
3
0
3
7
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
337
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
6.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
186
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.02
Rushing Yards
129
151
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
45%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-7.69
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
60
97
Penalty EPA
-8.77
-11.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.9
Home QB Adjustment
+36.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U