CARPanthers
4-10
20
TBD
FedExField
41°F
6 mph
13
WASCommanders
6-8
TBD
FedExField
41°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
14
0
0
20
Commanders
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
386
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
4.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
167
278
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
26/47(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.30
Rushing Yards
113
108
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.50
-11.31
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-13
Sack EPA
-12.56
-12.16
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-2.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-16.4
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
11
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U