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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ commanders week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-10
20
TBD
FedExField
41°F
6 mph
13
WASCommanders
6-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
41°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
14
0
0
20
Commanders
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

CAR logo
-1

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
280
386
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
4.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
167
278
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
26/47(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.30
Rushing Yards
113
108
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.50
-11.31
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-13
Sack EPA
-12.56
-12.16
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-2.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Value
Ptile
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
11/24
-6.3
15
12/01
-8.9
6
12/08
-6.9
13
12/15
5.0
83
12/22
-1.1
46
09/13
-3.4
22
09/20
-4.6
17
09/27
-7.8
6
10/04
3.5
70
12/20
-1.7
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15

EPA

EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
13
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
11
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
15
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-1
L
W
U
10/25
22
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
P
11/15
-3
L
L
O
11/22
11
W
W
U
11/26
25
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
U
12/13
8
W
W
U
12/20
-5
L
W
U