CARPanthers
3-0
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
036
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
14
28
Cowboys
7
6
20
3
36
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
433
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.6
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.18
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.28
Rushing Yards
113
245
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.7
7.2
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.04
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-7.17
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
32
50
Penalty EPA
-2.87
-4.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+49.8
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U