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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ cowboys week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-0
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
36
DALCowboys
2-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
14
28
Cowboys
7
6
20
3
36

Spread

DAL logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
379
433
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.6
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.18
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.28
Rushing Yards
113
245
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.7
7.2
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.04
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-7.17
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
32
50
Penalty EPA
-2.87
-4.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+49.8
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
-2.4
27
11/29
-9.0
4
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Value
Ptile
12/22
-2.1
38
12/29
7.0
90
09/13
2.2
60
09/20
14.6
99
09/27
6.2
85
10/04
11.1
97
10/11
-4.9
16
09/09
9.5
96
09/19
-0.6
48
09/27
1.2
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20

EPA

EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18

EPA

EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
20
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
5
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/23
15
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-25
L
L
O
12/08
-17
L
L
O
12/13
23
W
W
U
12/20
8
W
W
O
12/27
20
W
W
O
01/03
-4
L
L
U
09/09
-2
L
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/27
20
W
W
O