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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ dolphins week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
0-5
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
12 mph
42
MIADolphins
4-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
0
0
1
15
Dolphins
0
21
7
14
42

Spread

MIA logo
-14

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
296
424
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
4.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.21
Passing Yards
188
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.22
Rushing Yards
108
162
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.98
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-36
--
Sack EPA
-7.07
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
+3.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
+64.3
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47
10/01
-4.0
25
10/08
-0.4
46
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.6
47
12/04
-2.6
31
12/11
-5.2
17
12/17
1.8
66
12/25
-3.4
25
09/10
9.4
97
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
10/01
0.4
52
10/08
1.9
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23

EPA

EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
9
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
3
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
6
W
W
O
12/18
-8
L
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
L
O
01/08
3
W
W
U
09/10
-14
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
-8
L
L
U
10/08
-18
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
W
O
01/08
5
W
W
U
01/15
-3
L
W
O
09/10
2
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
15
W
W
U