CARPanthers
0-5
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
12 mph
42
MIADolphins
4-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
0
0
1
15
Dolphins
0
21
7
14
42
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
424
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
4.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.21
Passing Yards
188
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.22
Rushing Yards
108
162
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.98
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-36
--
Sack EPA
-7.07
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
+3.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
+64.3
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
9
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U