CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
3
0
10
Falcons
0
7
3
14
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
221
Total Plays
72
48
Yards / Play
3.9
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.09
Passing Yards
127
91
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
15/18(83%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.25
Rushing Yards
154
130
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.07
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.44
-5.17
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
66
43
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-4.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
No recent game data available
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U